Since ChatGPT came on the scene in November 2022, employees have been using the AI chatbot and other variations from Google, Microsoft, Apple, and others, to take notes, write emails, and translate meetings.
But could the tools you’re using to help your work actually take your job instead?
Goldman Sachs estimated in a 2023 report that AI could automate 300 million full-time jobs, while McKinsey wrote in the same year that up to 375 million workers may be displaced by AI by 2030.
While AI could take over jobs on Wall Street or software developer roles at Big Tech firms, a recent Pew Research survey found that AI experts deem three professions most at risk of vanishing in the next 20 years due to AI: cashiers, journalists, and factory workers.
Pew Research surveyed over 5,400 U.S. adults and more than 1,000 AI experts who spoke or presented at 21 AI-related conferences in 2023 or 2024.
“It’s really important that both of these sets of views are in the room,” Jeff Gottfried, Pew’s associate director of research, told CNBC.
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The survey, which was conducted from August to October 2024, with results released last month, found that when it comes to professions, AI experts and the general population shared common views about which jobs AI is most likely to replace. Both 73% of U.S. adults and AI experts stated that AI will lead to fewer jobs for cashiers over the next 20 years, while nearly 60% of each group gave the same prediction for journalists.
More of the public, 67% compared to 60% for AI experts, said that AI could take over factory positions, while nearly half of each group said that AI could replace some software engineering jobs.
Less than half of both AI experts and the general public predicted job loss for mental health therapists, lawyers, musicians, teachers, and medical doctors in the next twenty years.
The survey additionally showed that experts are generally more optimistic about AI than the general public.
For example, while most experts (73%) said that AI would have a positive impact on jobs in the next 20 years, only 23% of U.S. adults said that AI would positively impact their work. More than half of the public said they were anxious about AI causing job loss, while only 25% of experts were concerned. Meanwhile, the majority of U.S. adults (64%) said that AI would lead to fewer jobs, but only 39% of experts shared the same outlook.
Overall, the majority of experts (56%) said that AI will have a positive impact on the U.S. over the next two decades, while less than one in five of the general population (17%) indicated the same.