US intensifying bid to end Ukraine war

The pace of diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine is quickening.

Talks are taking place in London between officials from the UK, Germany, France, Ukraine and the United States. Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is heading to Moscow for his fourth meeting with President Putin.

And yet there is little clarity about where these efforts are heading or whether they will be successful.

Not so long ago the American plan for ending the fighting in Ukraine was clear.

There would be an immediate, unconditional 30-day ceasefire followed by longer-term talks to establish a permanent settlement to the war.

Ukraine agreed to this and – under pressure from the US – made a huge concession; it would no longer demand the promise of long-term security guarantees before any cessation of hostilities.

But Russia refused to play ball, insisting there could be no end to the fighting until a whole series of conditions were met.

In particular, Vladimir Putin said “the root causes” of the war had to be addressed, namely his fears of an expanding Nato alliance and the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state somehow presenting a threat to Russia’s security.

The US accepted the premise of this Russian argument and is now deep in the weeds of a potential ceasefire proposal.

In recent days, there have been various leaks about the latest US ideas, the status and veracity of which is disputed among diplomats.

But there seems to be a framework along the following lines: Russia would halt its invasion along current lines, and would give up its ambition to control the remaining parts of the four regions of eastern Ukraine it has yet to occupy, namely Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

In return, the US would accept the four occupied territories de facto as Russian controlled.

It would also recognise Crimea – which was annexed illegally by Russia in 2014 – as de jure Russian territory. The US would also ensure Ukraine ruled out joining Nato.

As part of this plan, the US might also take control of the controversial Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – currently in Russian hands – and feed the electricity to both parts of Ukrainian territory.

This proposal would then be backed up with the US threat – as rehearsed by both President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio – that it would give up on the negotiations if there was no immediate agreement.

At first sight, this proposal seems unlikely to succeed.

President Zelensky has already made it clear Ukraine would never concede that Crimea is Russian sovereignty.

Even if he wanted to do that, he could not because it would first require a referendum of the Ukrainian people.

The European powers have made clear they would not accept Russian sovereignty over Crimea, something that would breach post-war international legal norms that borders should not be changed by military force.

Legal experts say there are even technical issues about the US recognising Crimea because of certain laws passed by the US Congress.

But despite that, western diplomats do not dismiss the plan out of hand. “There is a landing space,” one told me. “It is just a question of whether there is enough trust between the parties to move forward.”

They say that because the proposed deal, as leaked so far, contains huge gaps.

There is no reference to any ban on western countries continuing to rearm Ukraine, something that in the past has been a red line for Russia.

There is no reference, either, to Russia’s demands for Ukraine to be “demilitarised”, in other words for its army to be reduced massively in size, again another long-term Moscow demand.

Under the deal, Ukraine may not be allowed to join Nato but it could join the European Union.

There is no apparent objection to a European “reassurance force” deploying to western Ukraine after any ceasefire to deter future Russian aggression.

But it is still not clear if the US is willing to provide a “backstop” to this force. There is also uncertainty about what economic sanctions against Russia would be lifted and when, and under what circumstances.

In other words, a huge amount of detail is unclear and still to be discussed.

And all sides seem far apart.

Ukraine still wants an immediate conditional ceasefire and then talks. The US wants a quick win. And Russia wants to get deep into the detail of a peace deal, the like of which normally takes months if not years to resolve.

There is an old Russian saying that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”. Right now we seem far away from that.